Dive Conditions

MontereyCarmel River Beach

Carmel River Beach

Carmel, Monterey Bay, California

Directions to the entry

Rough→ new 15 s swell arriving

Moderate NW swell, partly blocked by Cypress Point: expect a heavy shore break.

High confidence

High confidence: Based on a buoy reading 46 min ago; the forecast has been matching the buoy closely.

Buoy 46239 reading 11:30 AM (56 min ago)Forecast issued Tue, Oct 13, 11:27 AM PDT

Carmel River State Beach and lagoon looking west
The beach and lagoon. Photo: Gregory Ford Henderson, CC BY-SA 4.0.

Limited validation: few dive reports to check this site's rating against.

Right now

Rough: 6 ft at 15 s from the NW (Point Sur buoy), partly blocked here by Cypress Point, long period so the surge runs deep; plus 6 ft of wind swell at 9 s from the NW; 9 kt onshore wind; new 15 s swell arriving.

Waves here
2.5ft
estimated
Buoy swell
5.9ft
buoy 46239
Period
15s
From
NW
315°
Wind
9kt
onshore
Tide
5.5ft
Water
66°F
buoy 46239
Air
60°F

"Waves here" is estimated from the buoy and this site's exposure; the buoys are offshore. Wind and air are the NWS forecast for this hour.

When should I dive?

Today

Rough→ new 15 s swell arriving

Now and the rest of today's daylight, roughest hour shown. Rated at 12:16 PM.

Rough: 6 ft at 15 s from the NW (Point Sur buoy), partly blocked here by Cypress Point, long period so the surge runs deep; plus 6 ft of wind swell at 9 s from the NW; 9 kt onshore wind; new 15 s swell arriving.

High confidence

High confidence: Based on a buoy reading 56 min ago; the forecast has been matching the buoy closely.

Waves here
2.5ft
Buoy swell
5.9ft
Period
15s
Wind
9ktonshore
Morning–passed
MiddayRough2.5 ft · 9 kt
AfternoonRough2.7 ft · 12 kt

High 1:18 AM, 4 ftLow 5:55 AM, 2.7 ftHigh 12:02 PM, 5.5 ftLow 7:26 PM, 0.1 ft

Wed, Oct 14

Mediocre→ steady

7 to 11 AM dive window, roughest hour shown. Rated at 7:00 AM.

Mediocre: 4 ft at 14 s from the WNW (Point Sur buoy), hitting this site nearly full strength, long period so the surge runs deep; plus 4 ft at 7 s from the NW; 7 kt offshore wind.

Medium confidence

Medium confidence: A forecast about 19 hours ahead; the forecast has been matching the buoy closely.

Waves here
2.1ft
Buoy swell
4.4ft
Period
14s
Wind
7ktoffshore
MorningMediocre2.1 ft · 7 kt
MiddayMediocre2 ft · 8 kt
AfternoonGood2 ft · 9 kt

High 2:20 AM, 3.8 ftLow 6:24 AM, 3 ftHigh 12:33 PM, 5.3 ftLow 8:15 PM, 0.3 ft

Thu, Oct 15

Good→ steadyBest day this week

7 to 11 AM dive window, roughest hour shown. Rated at 7:00 AM.

Good: 4 ft at 13 s from the WNW (Point Sur buoy), hitting this site nearly full strength; 9 kt cross-shore wind; more than 24 hours out while the wave model is still being calibrated, so Low confidence; capped at Good because confidence is Low.

Low confidence

Low confidence: A forecast about 43 hours ahead; the forecast has been matching the buoy closely.

Waves here
1.6ft
Buoy swell
3.8ft
Period
13s
Wind
9ktcross-shore
MorningGood1.6 ft · 9 kt
MiddayGood1.6 ft · 11 kt
AfternoonGood1.7 ft · 9 kt

High 3:37 AM, 3.6 ftLow 6:55 AM, 3.3 ftHigh 1:10 PM, 5.1 ftLow 9:11 PM, 0.4 ft

Fri, Oct 16

Good→ steady

7 to 11 AM dive window, roughest hour shown. Rated at 7:00 AM.

Good: 5 ft at 12 s from the NW (Point Sur buoy), partly blocked here by Cypress Point; 7 kt offshore wind; Low confidence.

Low confidence

Low confidence: A forecast about 67 hours ahead; the forecast has been matching the buoy closely.

Waves here
1.7ft
Buoy swell
4.6ft
Period
12s
Wind
7ktoffshore
MorningGood1.7 ft · 7 kt
MiddayGood1.6 ft · 6 kt
AfternoonGood1.5 ft · 5 kt

High 5:10 AM, 3.6 ftLow 7:37 AM, 3.5 ftHigh 1:58 PM, 4.8 ftLow 10:14 PM, 0.6 ft

Sat, Oct 17

Good↑ new 18 s swell building, peaking around 10 pm Sat

7 to 11 AM dive window, roughest hour shown. Rated at 10:00 AM.

Good: 5 ft at 6 s from the NW (Point Sur buoy), partly blocked here by Cypress Point; plus 2 ft at 13 s from the WNW; plus 2 ft at 11 s from the WNW; 7 kt cross-shore wind; new 18 s swell building, peaking around 10 pm Sat; Low confidence; capped at Good because confidence is Low.

Low confidence

Low confidence: A forecast about 94 hours ahead; the forecast has been matching the buoy closely.

Waves here
1.9ft
Buoy swell
4.9ft
Period
6s
Wind
7ktcross-shore
MorningGood1.9 ft · 7 kt
MiddayGood2.1 ft · 9 kt
AfternoonMediocre2.4 ft · 7 kt

High 6:33 AM, 3.7 ftLow 9:03 AM, 3.6 ftHigh 3:04 PM, 4.5 ftLow 11:18 PM, 0.6 ft

Next five days, hour by hour

Rating
Tue 1:00 PM to Tue 7:00 PM: Rough; up to 2.7 ft here, 15 s, wind up to 16 ktTue 7:00 PM to Wed 1:00 PM: Mediocre; up to 2.7 ft here, 15 s, wind up to 16 ktWed 1:00 PM to Sat 6:00 PM: Good; up to 2.3 ft here, 14 s, wind up to 11 ktSat 6:00 PM to Sat 9:00 PM: Mediocre; up to 2.5 ft here, 7 s, wind up to 7 ktNowTodayWedThuFriSatTue 1:00 PM to Tue 7:00 PM: Rough; up to 2.7 ft here, 15 s, wind up to 16 ktTue 7:00 PM to Wed 1:00 PM: Mediocre; up to 2.7 ft here, 15 s, wind up to 16 ktWed 1:00 PM to Sat 6:00 PM: Good; up to 2.3 ft here, 14 s, wind up to 11 ktSat 6:00 PM to Sat 9:00 PM: Mediocre; up to 2.5 ft here, 7 s, wind up to 7 ktNowTodayWedThuFriSat

Tap a stretch of the ribbon for its times and numbers.

Waves here (ft)
0 ft1.5 ft3 ftTodayWedThuFriSat0 ft1.5 ft3 ftTodayWedThuFriSat
Period (s)
0 s8.5 s17 sTodayWedThuFriSat0 s8.5 s17 sTodayWedThuFriSat
Wind (kt)
0 kt9 kt18 ktTodayWedThuFriSat0 kt9 kt18 ktTodayWedThuFriSat
Tide (ft)
0 ft3 ft6 ftTodayWedThuFriSat0 ft3 ft6 ftTodayWedThuFriSat

Shaded = night. Waves from the NOAA GFS-Wave (WAVEWATCH III) model at buoy 46239, corrected against what that buoy has measured (systematic factor 1.40, seeded until 7 days of data are logged). The rating uses each hour's waves, wind and tide.

Getting in

The north end of Carmel River State Beach. Steep sand entry, timed between sets.

Directions to the entry

Aerial view of North end, Carmelo Street lot with the entry and parking marked
North end, Carmelo Street lot. Imagery: USGS/USDA NAIP, public domain.

Red pin: entry. Yellow pin: parking. Points checked against OpenStreetMap and aerial imagery; look the spot over when you arrive.

Live conditions

Point Lobos Whalers Cove stream (California State Parks)Whalers Cove, with Carmel River State Beach in the background.Carmel ClamCamPescadero Rocks to Point Lobos; pan and zoom.Tickle Pink Inn coast camThe Carmel Highlands coastline just south of Point Lobos.

Each cam opens on its owner's site.

Recent buoy readings buoy 46239, Point Sur

TimeWavesPeriodFromWater
11:30 AM 56 min ago8.5 ft15 sNW66°F
11:00 AM 1 h ago7.9 ft15 sNW66°F
10:30 AM 2 h ago8.9 ft15 sWNW66°F
10:00 AM 2 h ago9.2 ft15 sNW66°F
9:30 AM 3 h ago8.5 ft14 sNW66°F
9:00 AM 3 h ago8.5 ft15 sWNW66°F
8:30 AM 4 h ago8.2 ft14 sWNW66°F
8:00 AM 4 h ago8.5 ft14 sWNW66°F

Randall Spangler's conditions guide · Monterey County Dive Reports

Dive-site information

Access
No permit needed. State beach parking.
Parking
The Carmel River State Beach lot at the end of Carmelo Street, or along Highway 1 at the south end.
Hazards
Shore break and rip currents, worse when the river mouth is open.
Skill
For experienced divers: steep beach entry like Monastery. Advisory only, not a safety guarantee; always judge conditions yourself.
Site
Sand and rock near the north end of the beach. Faces west and takes swell from about 221 to 320 degrees; Point Lobos blocks the south and Cypress Point the north. Steep, like Monastery, with tight thresholds.

Advanced forecast and methodology

Buoy

Forecast check: Over the last 36 hours the forecast has matched the Point Sur buoy well (14 readings compared).

Buoy split now: swell 5.9 ft at 15.4 s from the NW, 30% reaches this site; wind waves 6.2 ft at 8.7 s from the NW, 27% reaches this site.

NWPS forecast vs buoy 46239Updated Tue, Oct 13, 3:52 AM PDT
NWPS forecast vs buoy 46239

Red dots: the buoy. Blue: the latest NWPS forecast; black and light blue: earlier runs. Green: the global GFS-Wave model. Times are UTC (subtract 7 hours for Pacific daylight time). View the full forecast at NOAA

30-day forecast accuracy chart · Our forecast-vs-buoy log (JSON)

Forecast models

Waves from the NOAA GFS-Wave (WAVEWATCH III) model at buoy 46239, corrected against what that buoy has measured (systematic factor 1.40, seeded until 7 days of data are logged). Wind and air temperature come from the NWS forecast for the water off Carmel River Beach, issued Tue, Oct 13, 11:27 AM PDT.

NWS marine forecast: Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas, out to 10 nm

Today: N wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming NW 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave Detail: NW 5 ft at 9 seconds and SW 3 ft at 17 seconds.

Tonight: NW wind 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave Detail: NW 6 ft at 8 seconds and SW 3 ft at 17 seconds.

Wed: N wind 5 to 10 kt, backing to NW in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave Detail: NW 4 ft at 7 seconds and SW 3 ft at 16 seconds.

Wed Night: N wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave Detail: NW 4 ft at 8 seconds and SW 3 ft at 15 seconds.

Issued Tue, Oct 13, 8:30 AM PDT

Swell systems at buoy 46239Updated Tue, Oct 13, 12:00 AM PDT
Swell systems at buoy 46239

Each color is one swell system; arrow length shows its size. A band at 15 s and up means long-period swell and surge. Times are UTC. View the full forecast at NOAA

Rating logic

Surge
The rating turns each swell into a "surge index" in feet: the height that reaches this site, weighted up for longer periods because long swell moves the water harder near the bottom. Here the index moves from Great to Good at 1.8, Mediocre at 2.3, Rough at 2.7 and Stay home at 3.2 ft. Right now it is 2.7 ft.
Direction
Faces west and takes swell from about 221 to 320 degrees; Point Lobos blocks the south and Cypress Point the north. Steep, like Monastery, with tight thresholds.
Wind
Onshore wind here blows from the W. Onshore wind over about 10 kt chops up entries and surface swims; a strong offshore wind (over 15 kt) pushes surface swimmers out. Gusts count for half.
Tide
Heights at the Monterey tide station, in feet above mean lower low water. The entry is easiest between -0.5 and 5.5 ft; tide only nudges the rating.
Trend and confidence
The arrow compares the last 9 hours at the buoy with the next 12 hours of forecast; a building long-period swell can push a borderline day one step worse. Confidence is High for a fresh buoy reading or a forecast for the next 12 hours, and drops with lead time, a backup buoy, or a forecast that has been missing the buoy.
Limits
A model, not a guarantee: it does not know visibility, local sandbars or what the surf did five minutes ago. Back-tested against dive reports, it matched about 80% exactly and 91% within one level. Always look before you go in.

Sources