Dive Conditions

MontereyMonastery Beach

Monastery Beach

Carmel, Monterey Bay, California

Directions to the entryParking

Rough→ new 15 s swell arriving

Modest NW swell, partly blocked by Cypress Point: expect a heavy shore break.

High confidence

High confidence: Based on a buoy reading 45 min ago; the forecast has been matching the buoy closely.

Buoy 46239 reading 11:00 AM (48 min ago)Forecast issued Tue, Oct 13, 11:27 AM PDT

Site hazard

Monastery Beach is steep with a plunging shore break and a rip in the middle; it can turn dangerous between sets even on calm-looking days.

Right now

Rough: 5 ft at 15 s from the NW (Point Sur buoy), partly blocked here by Cypress Point, long period so the surge runs deep; plus 6 ft of wind swell at 8 s from the NW; 8 kt onshore wind; new 15 s swell arriving.

Waves here
2.4ft
estimated
Buoy swell
5.2ft
buoy 46239
Period
15s
From
NW
315°
Wind
8kt
onshore
Tide
5.5ft
Water
66°F
buoy 46239
Air
59°F

"Waves here" is estimated from the buoy and this site's exposure; the buoys are offshore. Wind and air are the NWS forecast for this hour.

When should I dive?

Today

Stay home→ new 15 s swell arriving

Now and the rest of today's daylight, roughest hour shown. Rated at 1:00 PM.

Stay home: 5 ft at 15 s from the WNW (Point Sur buoy), hitting this site nearly full strength, long period so the surge runs deep; plus 6 ft at 8 s from the NW; 11 kt onshore wind; new 15 s swell arriving; surge and shore break are dangerous for this entry.

High confidence

High confidence: A forecast about 1 hours ahead; the forecast has been matching the buoy closely.

Waves here
2.8ft
Buoy swell
4.7ft
Period
15s
Wind
11ktonshore
Morning–passed
MiddayStay home2.8 ft · 11 kt
AfternoonStay home2.8 ft · 12 kt

High 1:18 AM, 4 ftLow 5:55 AM, 2.7 ftHigh 12:02 PM, 5.5 ftLow 7:26 PM, 0.1 ft

Wed, Oct 14

Mediocre→ steady

7 to 11 AM dive window, roughest hour shown. Rated at 7:00 AM.

Mediocre: 4 ft at 14 s from the WNW (Point Sur buoy), hitting this site nearly full strength, long period so the surge runs deep; plus 4 ft at 7 s from the NW; 7 kt cross-shore wind.

Medium confidence

Medium confidence: A forecast about 19 hours ahead; the forecast has been matching the buoy closely.

Waves here
2.3ft
Buoy swell
4.4ft
Period
14s
Wind
7ktcross-shore
MorningMediocre2.3 ft · 7 kt
MiddayMediocre2.1 ft · 8 kt
AfternoonMediocre2.1 ft · 9 kt

High 2:20 AM, 3.8 ftLow 6:24 AM, 3 ftHigh 12:33 PM, 5.3 ftLow 8:15 PM, 0.3 ft

Thu, Oct 15

Good→ steadyBest day this week

7 to 11 AM dive window, roughest hour shown. Rated at 7:00 AM.

Good: 4 ft at 13 s from the WNW (Point Sur buoy), hitting this site nearly full strength; plus 4 ft at 6 s from the NW; 9 kt cross-shore wind.

Medium confidence

Medium confidence: A forecast about 43 hours ahead; the forecast has been matching the buoy closely.

Waves here
1.8ft
Buoy swell
3.8ft
Period
13s
Wind
9ktcross-shore
MorningGood1.8 ft · 9 kt
MiddayGood1.8 ft · 11 kt
AfternoonGood1.8 ft · 9 kt

High 3:37 AM, 3.6 ftLow 6:55 AM, 3.3 ftHigh 1:10 PM, 5.1 ftLow 9:11 PM, 0.4 ft

Fri, Oct 16

Good→ steady

7 to 11 AM dive window, roughest hour shown. Rated at 7:00 AM.

Good: 5 ft at 12 s from the NW (Point Sur buoy), hitting this site nearly full strength; 7 kt cross-shore wind; Low confidence.

Low confidence

Low confidence: A forecast about 67 hours ahead; the forecast has been matching the buoy closely.

Waves here
1.7ft
Buoy swell
4.6ft
Period
12s
Wind
7ktcross-shore
MorningGood1.7 ft · 7 kt
MiddayGood1.7 ft · 6 kt
AfternoonGood1.6 ft · 6 kt

High 5:10 AM, 3.6 ftLow 7:37 AM, 3.5 ftHigh 1:58 PM, 4.8 ftLow 10:14 PM, 0.6 ft

Sat, Oct 17

Mediocre↑ new 18 s swell building, peaking around 11 pm Sat

7 to 11 AM dive window, roughest hour shown. Rated at 11:00 AM.

Mediocre: 5 ft of wind swell at 6 s from the NW (Point Sur buoy), partly blocked here by Cypress Point; plus 3 ft at 13 s from the WNW; plus 2 ft at 10 s from the WNW; 7 kt onshore wind; new 18 s swell building, peaking around 11 pm Sat; Low confidence.

Low confidence

Low confidence: A forecast about 95 hours ahead; the forecast has been matching the buoy closely.

Waves here
2.1ft
Buoy swell
5ft
Period
6s
Wind
7ktonshore
MorningGood2 ft · 7 kt
MiddayMediocre2.3 ft · 9 kt
AfternoonMediocre2.5 ft · 7 kt

High 6:33 AM, 3.7 ftLow 9:03 AM, 3.6 ftHigh 3:04 PM, 4.5 ftLow 11:18 PM, 0.6 ft

Next five days, hour by hour

Rating
Tue 12:00 PM to Tue 1:00 PM: Rough; up to 2.4 ft here, 15 s, wind up to 9 ktTue 1:00 PM to Tue 4:00 PM: Stay home; up to 2.8 ft here, 15 s, wind up to 12 ktTue 4:00 PM to Wed 3:00 AM: Rough; up to 2.9 ft here, 15 s, wind up to 16 ktWed 3:00 AM to Thu 12:00 AM: Mediocre; up to 2.4 ft here, 14 s, wind up to 10 ktThu 12:00 AM to Sat 11:00 AM: Good; up to 2 ft here, 13 s, wind up to 11 ktSat 11:00 AM to Sat 1:00 PM: Mediocre; up to 2.1 ft here, 6 s, wind up to 7 ktSat 1:00 PM to Sat 2:00 PM: Good; up to 2.2 ft here, 6 s, wind up to 7 ktSat 2:00 PM to Sat 7:00 PM: Mediocre; up to 2.6 ft here, 13 s, wind up to 9 ktSat 7:00 PM to Sat 9:00 PM: Rough; up to 2.7 ft here, 7 s, wind up to 7 ktNowTodayWedThuFriSatTue 12:00 PM to Tue 1:00 PM: Rough; up to 2.4 ft here, 15 s, wind up to 9 ktTue 1:00 PM to Tue 4:00 PM: Stay home; up to 2.8 ft here, 15 s, wind up to 12 ktTue 4:00 PM to Wed 3:00 AM: Rough; up to 2.9 ft here, 15 s, wind up to 16 ktWed 3:00 AM to Thu 12:00 AM: Mediocre; up to 2.4 ft here, 14 s, wind up to 10 ktThu 12:00 AM to Sat 11:00 AM: Good; up to 2 ft here, 13 s, wind up to 11 ktSat 11:00 AM to Sat 1:00 PM: Mediocre; up to 2.1 ft here, 6 s, wind up to 7 ktSat 1:00 PM to Sat 2:00 PM: Good; up to 2.2 ft here, 6 s, wind up to 7 ktSat 2:00 PM to Sat 7:00 PM: Mediocre; up to 2.6 ft here, 13 s, wind up to 9 ktSat 7:00 PM to Sat 9:00 PM: Rough; up to 2.7 ft here, 7 s, wind up to 7 ktNowTodayWedThuFriSat

Tap a stretch of the ribbon for its times and numbers.

Waves here (ft)
0 ft2 ft4 ftTodayWedThuFriSat0 ft2 ft4 ftTodayWedThuFriSat
Period (s)
0 s8.5 s17 sTodayWedThuFriSat0 s8.5 s17 sTodayWedThuFriSat
Wind (kt)
0 kt9 kt18 ktTodayWedThuFriSat0 kt9 kt18 ktTodayWedThuFriSat
Tide (ft)
0 ft3.5 ft7 ftTodayWedThuFriSat0 ft3.5 ft7 ftTodayWedThuFriSat

Shaded = night. Waves from the NOAA GFS-Wave (WAVEWATCH III) model at buoy 46239, corrected against what that buoy has measured (systematic factor 1.40, seeded until 7 days of data are logged). The rating uses each hour's waves, wind and tide.

Live conditions

Point Lobos Whalers Cove stream (California State Parks)Whalers Cove, with Carmel River State Beach in the background.Carmel ClamCamPescadero Rocks to Point Lobos; pan and zoom.Tickle Pink Inn coast camThe Carmel Highlands coastline just south of Point Lobos.

None of these owners offers a public embed, so they open on the owner's site.

Recent buoy readings buoy 46239, Point Sur

TimeWavesPeriodFromWater
11:00 AM 48 min ago7.9 ft15 sNW66°F
10:30 AM 1 h ago8.9 ft15 sWNW66°F
10:00 AM 2 h ago9.2 ft15 sNW66°F
9:30 AM 2 h ago8.5 ft14 sNW66°F
9:00 AM 3 h ago8.5 ft15 sWNW66°F
8:30 AM 3 h ago8.2 ft14 sWNW66°F
8:00 AM 4 h ago8.5 ft14 sWNW66°F
7:30 AM 4 h ago8.9 ft15 sNW66°F

Randall Spangler's conditions guide · Monterey County Dive Reports

Dive-site information

Entry
Steep coarse-sand beach. Time the entry and exit between sets; the bottom drops off quickly.
Access
No permit needed. Parking is along Highway 1.
Parking
Along the shoulder of Highway 1 above the beach.
Maps
Points from OpenStreetMap; check the spot when you arrive.
Hazards
Shore break, rip currents and a deep submarine canyon close to shore.
Skill
For experienced divers only: the steep beach and shore break are the hazard. Advisory only, not a safety guarantee; always judge conditions yourself.
Site
The bottom drops off quickly into the Carmel submarine canyon. Open to swell from about 250 to 325 degrees, between Point Lobos and Cypress Point. Any swell that gets in turns into shore break on the steep beach, so its thresholds are much tighter than the other sites.

Advanced forecast and methodology

Buoy

Forecast check: Over the last 36 hours the forecast has matched the Point Sur buoy well (13 readings compared).

Buoy split now: swell 5.2 ft at 15.4 s from the NW, 33% reaches this site; wind waves 5.6 ft at 8.3 s from the NW, 31% reaches this site.

NWPS forecast vs buoy 46239Updated Tue, Oct 13, 3:52 AM PDT
NWPS forecast vs buoy 46239

Red dots: the buoy. Blue: the latest NWPS forecast; black and light blue: earlier runs. Green: the global GFS-Wave model. Times are UTC (subtract 7 hours for Pacific daylight time). View the full forecast at NOAA

30-day forecast accuracy chart · Our forecast-vs-buoy log (JSON)

Forecast models

Waves from the NOAA GFS-Wave (WAVEWATCH III) model at buoy 46239, corrected against what that buoy has measured (systematic factor 1.40, seeded until 7 days of data are logged). Wind and air temperature come from the NWS forecast for the water off Monastery Beach, issued Tue, Oct 13, 11:27 AM PDT.

NWS marine forecast: Point Pinos to Point Piedras Blancas, out to 10 nm

Today: N wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming NW 10 to 15 kt this afternoon. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave Detail: NW 5 ft at 9 seconds and SW 3 ft at 17 seconds.

Tonight: NW wind 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Wave Detail: NW 6 ft at 8 seconds and SW 3 ft at 17 seconds.

Wed: N wind 5 to 10 kt, backing to NW in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave Detail: NW 4 ft at 7 seconds and SW 3 ft at 16 seconds.

Wed Night: N wind 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Wave Detail: NW 4 ft at 8 seconds and SW 3 ft at 15 seconds.

Issued Tue, Oct 13, 8:30 AM PDT

Swell systems at buoy 46239Updated Tue, Oct 13, 12:00 AM PDT
Swell systems at buoy 46239

Each color is one swell system; arrow length shows its size. A band at 15 s and up means long-period swell and surge. Times are UTC. View the full forecast at NOAA

Rating logic

Surge
The rating turns each swell into a "surge index" in feet: the height that reaches this site, weighted up for longer periods because long swell moves the water harder near the bottom. Here the index moves from Great to Good at 1.7, Mediocre at 2.1, Rough at 2.5 and Stay home at 3 ft. Right now it is 2.7 ft.
Direction
Open to swell from about 250 to 325 degrees, between Point Lobos and Cypress Point. Any swell that gets in turns into shore break on the steep beach, so its thresholds are much tighter than the other sites.
Wind
Onshore wind here blows from the WNW. Onshore wind over about 10 kt chops up entries and surface swims; a strong offshore wind (over 15 kt) pushes surface swimmers out. Gusts count for half.
Tide
Heights at the Monterey tide station, in feet above mean lower low water. The entry is easiest between -0.5 and 5.5 ft; tide only nudges the rating.
Trend and confidence
The arrow compares the last 9 hours at the buoy with the next 12 hours of forecast; a building long-period swell can push a borderline day one step worse. Confidence is High for a fresh buoy reading or a forecast for the next 12 hours, and drops with lead time, a backup buoy, or a forecast that has been missing the buoy.
Limits
A model, not a guarantee: it does not know visibility, local sandbars or what the surf did five minutes ago. Back-tested against dive reports, it matched about 80% exactly and 91% within one level. Always look before you go in.

Sources